Intellectual labour at risk of replacement says Geoffrey Hinton
The computer scientist dubbed ‘the Godfather of AI’ has identified legal assistants and paralegals as among the roles most at risk of replacement by AI.
Geoffrey Hinton, famous for his work on artificial neural networks and winner of the 2024 Nobel Prize in Physics for his contribution to machine learning, appeared on the popular Diary of a CEO podcast for an interview heavily focused on the dangers of AI technology.
Amid a range of threats, spanning from an increase in cyber attacks to the development of autonomous lethal weapons, Hinton discussed the possibility that unemployment levels will increase as AI outperforms humans at what he terms “mundane intellectual labour”. He likens the development of this technology to the industrial revolution of the 19th century, which saw many manual labour jobs go extinct.
Hinton agreed with the now much-repeated phrase, “AI won’t take your job, a human using AI will take your job”, however stressed that as AI tools increase productivity, fewer human employees will be needed in many workplaces. “The combination of a person and an AI assistant can do the work that 10 people could do previously,” he explained.
When asked which roles specifically face the highest threat of AI replacement, Hinton replied, “Someone like a legal assistant or paralegal — they’re not going to be needed for very long.” He went on to mention call centre workers as another group at risk.
On the roles less likely to be replaced, skilled trades come out on top. “It’s going to be a long time until [AI] is as good at physical manipulation as us, so a good bet would be to be a plumber,” Hinton suggested.
Throughout the interview Hinton emphasises the difficulty of making confident predictions about the future of this technology. “Anybody who tells you they know just what’s going to happen and how to deal with it is talking nonsense,” he told listeners.
The extent of the effect that AI will have on the legal industry, including roles like paralegals and legal assistants, has been much debated. Back in March, Simmons & Simmons senior partner Julian Taylor told journalists that his clients “don’t completely trust” AI and would rather have real people handling the complex and high-stakes work they send to the firm. As a service industry heavily influenced by the wishes of its clients, this could suggest that the profession will be slower to replace staff with technology than Hinton suggests.